Challenge
As the UK works towards Net Zero, more homes must move from gas central heating to low-carbon alternatives such as heat pumps. They can be more efficient than gas boilers, and many people who have switched would recommend them.
But the decision often comes at the worst possible moment. Around a third of people replacing a heating system do so after their boiler has broken down or become irreparable. With little time, high stress and a larger initial cost, choosing unfamiliar technology becomes much harder.
Energy Systems Catapult, part of the Innovate UK Catapult Network, wanted to understand the psychological barriers shaping these distress purchases and identify ways to increase uptake. It needed research that could reveal the emotions and pressures influencing the decision, not just people’s rational explanations.
“If switching to a heat pump was an easy, confident choice for people in distress purchase situations, we could make huge in-roads to rolling them out at the pace needed to support the UK’s transition to Net Zero. At the moment heat pumps are generally installed in more carefully-planned situations by people who have had the time and motivation to consider them. There’s a huge opportunity to facilitate a shift to a heat pump in situations where people are faced with an unexpected decision and very little time to make it, but the sector needs to understand how to approach what is a very different consumer journey.”
— Danica Caiger-Smith, Insight Practice Manager
Solution
The Catapult partnered with Irrational Agency because traditional research can struggle to recreate the emotional intensity of a breakdown. Our System 3 narrative approach explores the stories people construct to make sense of the situation: what a heat pump signals, how unfamiliarity becomes risk, which barriers enter the story and what might change it.
A three-tier quantitative study surveyed people who had experienced a boiler failure within the previous 24 months, or expected one soon. It explored the distress scenario, heat-pump associations and narratives, then evaluation and barrier removal. Implicit responses, narrative exercises, word association and decision pathways were mapped through our proprietary platform to reveal the underlying decision story at scale.
Outcome
The research showed how emotional and practical factors interact across the consumer journey. Anticipating a breakdown can feel worse than the breakdown itself, people overweight unknown risks, and in a ‘hot state’ unfamiliarity becomes a risk in its own right.
Interventions need to lead with emotional reassurance before functional benefits, while keeping information concise. Cost remains part of the consumer narrative, but can be reframed around long-term value. Installers can provide a trusted voice of authority when online research becomes overwhelming, provided they understand consumers as well as the technology.
Energy Systems Catapult is applying the findings across connected programmes, from workforce skills and consumer trust to the structure of information, advice and guidance. It has also published recommendations to help households plan for and navigate heat-pump decisions, which you can download here.
“Through in-depth qualitative research we’ve understood the extent of the perceptions, thought processes and biases that can influence people’s decisions – with this project, Irrational Agency helped us bring that to life at a greater scale. This research has helped us build a clearer understanding of barriers – like situational and emotional factors – that aren’t necessarily at the front of mind when we think about how to roll heat pumps out across the country.”
— Danica Caiger-Smith, Insight Practice Manager
Other Case Studies
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